Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid: Result & Analysis
Atlético de Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1 in the La Liga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.
Our Pre-Match Prediction
Before kick-off the model gave — Atlético de Madrid: 28%, Draw: 28%, Real Madrid: 44%. Predicted scoreline was 0–1 (confidence 44%).
The model favours Real Madrid (44%) away: they create 2.3 goals/game but Atlético de Madrid defend well (0.9 conceded/game), which tempers the edge. With home advantage, projected around 1.0–1.3.
Head to Head
Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid have met 5 times in the records we hold.
20 Sep 2026 — Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid (2026/2027).
Scorers: Jonathan David 59', Antonio Rüdiger 89'.
22 Mar 2026 — Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético de Madrid (2025/2026).
Scorers: Ademola Lookman 33', Federico Valverde 55', Nahuel Molina 66', Vinicius Junior 72'.
27 Sep 2025 — Atlético de Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid (2025/2026).
Scorers: Robin Le Normand 14', Kylian Mbappé 25', Arda Güler 36', Alexander Sørloth 45'.
8 Feb 2025 — Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético de Madrid (2024/2025).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 50'.
29 Sep 2024 — Atlético de Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid (2024/2025).
Scorers: Éder Militão 64', Ángel Correa 90'.
Over the last 5 meetings Atlético de Madrid hold the edge (2W · 2D · 1L), with Atlético de Madrid winning 2 of 5 (40%) and averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Explore
More on Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.
Every Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.