Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal: Result & Analysis
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0 in the La Liga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.
Our Pre-Match Prediction
Before kick-off the model gave — Real Madrid: 67%, Draw: 21%, Villarreal: 12%. Predicted scoreline was 1–0 (confidence 67%).
The model favours Real Madrid (67%) at home: they create 2.3 goals/game against Villarreal's 1.0 conceded/game. With home advantage, projected around 1.9–0.7.
Head to Head
Real Madrid and Villarreal have met 5 times in the records we hold.
10 Oct 2026 — Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal (2026/2027).
Scorers: Yan Diomande 62', Vinicius Junior 71'.
24 Jan 2026 — Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid (2025/2026).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 47'.
4 Oct 2025 — Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal (2025/2026).
Scorers: Vinicius Junior 47', Georges Mikautadze 73', Kylian Mbappé 81'.
15 Mar 2025 — Villarreal 1–2 Real Madrid (2024/2025).
Scorers: Juan Foyth 7', Kylian Mbappé 17', Kylian Mbappé 23'.
5 Oct 2024 — Real Madrid 2–0 Villarreal (2024/2025).
Scorers: Federico Valverde 14', Vinicius Junior 73'.
Over the last 5 meetings Real Madrid hold the edge (5W · 0D · 0L), with Real Madrid winning 5 of 5 (100%) and averaging 2 goals per game.
Explore
More on Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.
Every Real Madrid vs Villarreal call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.