St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05: Result & Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 beat St. Pauli 2–1 in the Bundesliga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.

Our Pre-Match Prediction

Before kick-off the model gave — St. Pauli: 25%, Draw: 21%, FSV Mainz 05: 54%. Predicted scoreline was 1–2 (confidence 54%).

The model favours FSV Mainz 05 (54%) away: they create 1.6 goals/game and St. Pauli are leaking goals (1.9 conceded/game). With home advantage, projected around 1.3–2.0.

Head to Head

St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 have met 4 times in the records we hold.

3 May 2026 — St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 (2025/2026).

Scorers: Phillip Tietz 6', Grenddy Perozo 40', Abdoulie Ceesay 87'.

21 Dec 2025 — FSV Mainz 05 0–0 St. Pauli (2025/2026).

22 Feb 2025 — FSV Mainz 05 2–0 St. Pauli (2024/2025).

5 Oct 2024 — St. Pauli 0–3 FSV Mainz 05 (2024/2025).

Over the last 4 meetings FSV Mainz 05 hold the edge (0W · 1D · 3L), with St. Pauli winning 0 of 4 and averaging 0.2 goals per game.

Explore

This Week's Conviction

More on St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.

Every St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.