Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano: Result & Analysis
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1 in the La Liga. Below is the model's pre-match call on this fixture, published before kick-off, and the analysis behind it.
Our Pre-Match Prediction
Before kick-off the model gave — Real Madrid: 80%, Draw: 14%, Rayo Vallecano: 6%. Predicted scoreline was 2–0 (confidence 80%).
The model favours Real Madrid (80%) at home: they create 2.3 goals/game against Rayo Vallecano's 1.3 conceded/game. With home advantage, projected around 2.5–0.5.
Head to Head
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano have met 5 times in the records we hold.
12 Sep 2026 — Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano (2026/2027).
Scorers: Álvaro Carreras 17', Jude Bellingham 35', Sergio Camello 51', Kylian Mbappé 90'.
1 Feb 2026 — Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano (2025/2026).
Scorers: Vinicius Junior 15', Jorge de Frutos 49'.
9 Nov 2025 — Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid (2025/2026).
9 Mar 2025 — Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano (2024/2025).
Scorers: Kylian Mbappé 30', Vinicius Junior 34', Pedro Díaz 45'.
14 Dec 2024 — Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid (2024/2025).
Scorers: Unai López 4', Abdul Mumin 36', Federico Valverde 39', Jude Bellingham 45'.
Over the last 5 meetings Real Madrid hold the edge (3W · 2D · 0L), with Real Madrid winning 3 of 5 (60%) and averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Explore
More on Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Win Probability & Scorelines · Model vs Market · Model Picks · Match Story · Starting Lineups · Referee Stats · Forecast & Player Stats · Head-to-Head Record.
Every Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano call above was published before kick-off and is graded in our public record, win or lose. Predictions are model estimates for information and entertainment only.